Motorsport Matters: MotoGP Season Predictions

While I'm putting some articles I've written in the past on my new site here's my pre-season prediction for the final 2016 MotoGP standings. I can already see a few riders or bikes that have surprised me and I'm sure will now be incorrect by the end of the season. The main surprise is that the Aprilia is so much more competitive than I thought it would be and there's no way Bradl and Bautista will be in the bottom two. That's a great omen for Sam Lowes who will be on that bike in 2017. It looks like the title will be a three-way fight still between Rossi, Lorenzo and Marquez as expected but I'm not sure Iannone, Redding and Smith will be as high as I predicted by the end. Time will tell. Another thing to remember is that this article was written before Lorenzo signed for Ducati, before Smith signed for KTM and before Vinales and Pedrosa were rumoured for Yamaha.

Here's what I thought a couple of months ago:

Champion – Valentino Rossi – Italian – 37 years old – Movistar Yamaha 6x MotoGP Champion (2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2009) 1x 500cc Champion (2001) 1x 250cc Champion (1999) 1x 125cc Champion (1997) 330 Races (238x MotoGP, 32x 500cc, 30x 250cc, 30x 125cc) 112 GP wins (73x MotoGP, 13x 500cc, 14x 250cc, 12x 125cc) 61 Poles (47x MotoGP, 4x 500cc, 5x 250cc, 5x 125cc) After coming so close for the past two seasons and now securing his ride at Yamaha until he plans to retire at the end of 2018 I see The Doctor, The Goat, Mr MotoGP taking his first title since 2009. He will be driven on by the antics that caused the controversy at the end of 2015.

Runner-up – Jorge Lorenzo – Spanish – 28 years old – Movistar Yamaha 3x MotoGP Champion (2010, 2012, 2015) 2x 250cc Champion (2006, 2007) 232 Races (138x MotoGP, 48x 250cc, 46x 125cc) 61 GP wins (40x MotoGP, 17x 250cc, 4x 125cc) 61 Poles (35x MotoGP, 23x 250cc, 3x 125cc) I think if anyone beats Rossi this year it will be his team-mate but I think the Italian will just have more determination and motivation. Until Jorge knows/decides where he’s going to ride in 2017 it may be at the back of his mind while racing. With Rossi staying at Yamaha for two more years will Lorenzo fancy a change if Ducati knock on his door? Would a seat at Honda be a possibility?

3rd – Marc Marquez – Spanish – 23 years old – Repsol Honda 2x MotoGP Champion (2013, 2014) 1x Moto2 Champion (2012) 1x 125cc Champion (2010) 132 Races (54x MotoGP, 32x Moto2, 46x 125cc) 50 GP wins (24x MotoGP, 16x Moto2, 10x 125cc) 58 Poles (30x MotoGP, 14x Moto2, 14x 125cc) He’s undoubtedly fast but showed in 2015 that he can’t cope (in my opinion) with the pressure of being second best and reverted to the Marquez we saw in Moto2 that was so often in the Stewards office. He crashed into the back of Rossi in Argentina because he didn’t want to settle for second on tyres that had given up already. He caused the collision with Rossi at Assen with a late lunge into the chicane that was never going to work and could have taken them both out. Then everyone can make their own mind up about Sepang. Personally I think he turned into Rossi which caused the collision even though the Italian should not have run him wide in the first place. The Honda is still not as good as the Yamaha overall or Ducati for top speed though.

4th – Andrea Iannone – Italian – 26 years old – Ducati Corse 179 Races (51x MotoGP, 51x Moto2, 77x 125cc) 12 GP wins (8x Moto2, 4x 125cc) 9 Poles (1x MotoGP, 5x Moto2, 3x 125cc) If anyone is going to break into the top four ‘Aliens’ seats then surely it has to be Crazy Joe or Maniac Joe or whatever you want to call him. I loved watching him in the lower classes as on his day he was the fastest, hardest rider in the field. He was inconsistent back then but since his move to Ducati that seems to have stopped. This could be the year Ducati finally get back to winning ways and I’m backing Iannone to be on the top step of the rostrum at some point.

5th – Dani Pedrosa – Spanish – 30 years old – Repsol Honda 2x 250cc Champion (2004, 2005) 1x 125cc Champion (2003) 244 Races (166x MotoGP, 32x 250cc, 46x 125cc) 51 GP wins (28x MotoGP, 15x 250cc, 8x 125cc) 46 Poles (28x MotoGP, 9x 250cc, 9x 125cc) People say he is the unluckiest rider in MotoGP. People make excuses because of the injuries he has suffered or that he is too small for a MotoGP bike. People say it would be great if he finally won a MotoGP title. I say he’s wasted a bike with championship potential year after year and even if he won this year (which I don’t think he will) it would not excuse the last ten years when he’s finished in the top four for the last nine of them. He’s won more races without winning a title than anyone else in the history of the sport by a country mile. He’s been chief bridesmaid on three occasions and in the entourage every other season but just not good enough for the number one plate. Surely this is his last season in the Honda seat.

6th – Maverick Vinales – Spanish – 21 years old – Suzuki Ecstar 1x Moto3 Champion (2013) 85 Races (18x MotoGP, 18x Moto2, 32x Moto3, 17x 125cc) 16 GP wins (4x Moto2, 8x Moto3, 4x 125cc) 11 Poles (1x Moto2, 7x Moto3, 3x 125cc) From that first win in his fourth ever race in the 125’s at Le Man I remember saying to my mate the same day this lad is something special and will win a MotoGP title in future. So far he’s on course for that and after a great rookie season with Suzuki in 2015 he looks set to top that in 2016 and show that he is the true #1 at Suzuki. Hopefully a works ride at Honda or Yamaha beckons. I’d love to see him alongside Rossi at Yamaha but concede that Honda is more likely. Marquez and Vinales in the same team though? There’d be more fireworks than the London Eye on New Year’s at midnight!

7th – Scott Redding – British – 23 years old – Pramac Ducati 136 Races (36x MotoGP, 67x Moto2, 33x 125cc) 4 GP wins (3x Moto2, 1x 125cc) 3 Poles (3x Moto2) It’s a close battle for ‘Top Brit’ this season and I’m picking Scott to not only win that but also edge above factory Ducati rider Andrea Dovizioso in the process (making him the first non-Spanish or Italian rider). His stats may not be as impressive as other young riders above him like Marquez and Vinales but Scott has improved year on year and this move to the satelite Ducati team came at the ideal time in his career. He had a surprise podium at Misano in 2015 and I want to see more in 2016. If he does well enough then maybe a factory ride could be on the cards.

8th – Bradley Smith – British – 25 years old – Monster Tech 3 Yamaha 167 Races (54x MotoGP, 33x Moto2, 80x 125cc) 3 GP wins (3x 125cc) 9 Poles (9x 125cc) Last year’s ‘Top Brit’ and also the highest ranked satelite rider. He’s already found out he won’t be with the team in 2017 and I wonder how it will affect his confidence. To me Bradley is not a natural rider like Rossi or Marquez where they just seem to have a built in instinct for it. Instead he works damn hard to get to where he is and has received very little credit from a lot of British fans and the press along the way. In his early MotoGP years people said he didn’t deserve the seat but I supported him and last year he showed his worth. He finished all eighteen races and had a superb second place at Misano. I’m predicting a drop to eighth as things stand but if the pressure of finding a 2017 seat gets the better of him then maybe lower. One seat that has been mentioned is at Suzuki if Vinales leaves.

9th – Andrea Dovizioso – Italian – 29 years old – Ducati Corse 1x 125cc Champion (2004) 240 Races (142x MotoGP, 49x 250cc, 49x 125cc) 10 GP wins (1x MotoGP, 4x 250cc, 5x 125cc) 16 Poles (3x MotoGP, 4x 250cc, 9x 125cc) As I write this I’m considering dropping him below Cal but I’ll stick with my original prediction. I can’t put my finger on what ‘it’ is but Dovi seemed to lose ‘it’ about five races into the season. He was on the podium four times in five races and then his performances dropped. Then his performances got worse. I’m not saying the results weren’t good and yes he did get one more podium at Silverstone but he went from someone challenging for a top four position in the championship to someone who seemed to settle for a comfy seventh overall. For me he’s certainly the one to leave unless they retain him for experience. He’s been in MotoGP since 2008 and came third in 2011 before leaving Repsol Honda for Tech 3 Yamaha.

10th – Cal Crutchlow – British – 30 years old – LCR Honda 2009 World Supersport Champion 87 Races (87x MotoGP) 2 Poles (2x MotoGP) Unlike the riders above him (and most below) Cal didn’t come to MotoGP through the lower and intermediate classes of the GP ranks. The former British Superbike rider (3rd in 2008) won the World Supersport Championship in 2009 (beating fellow MotoGP rider Eugene Laverty by seven points), moved to World Superbikes where he finished fifth in 2010 before joining Tech 3 Yamaha. In 2012 and 2013 he was great to watch as he was the satelite rider that took it to the ‘Aliens’ just as Iannone is doing now and was on the podium four times in 2013. People even put money on a maiden win that year until Ducati signed him for 2014. That seemed to knock the fight out of him somehow and then he had that horrid year on the horrid Ducati. Now he’s on the Honda he seems much happier and had a great surprise podium in Argentina last year. More of the same in 2016 overall though I think.

11th – Aleix Espargaro – Spanish – 26 years old – Suzuki Ecstar 178 Races (94x MotoGP, 17x Moto2, 44x 250cc, 23x 125cc) 2 Poles (2x MotoGP) Aleix was often a ‘middle ground’ rider throughout his career until he raced for the Forward Yamaha team in CRT category of MotoGP in 2014. His highest 125cc finish was seventh in China in 2005. His best in 250cc was a fourth placed at Assen in 2009 and he had a podium in Moto2 at Catalunya in 2011 but most of the time he’s been just ‘a regular points finisher’. That season with Forward though he caught everyone’s eye and even took a surprise pole at Assen on his way to seventh overall in the championship. I just think this year the gap between Vinales and him will grow and he’ll be more a rider finishing 7th-10th than 4th to 6th.

12th – Pol Espargaro – Spanish – 24 years old – Monster Tech 3 Yamaha 1x Moto2 Champion (2013) 158 Races (36x MotoGP, 51x Moto2, 71x 125cc) 15 GP wins (10x Moto2, 5x 125cc) 17 Poles (14x Moto2, 3x 125cc) It’s hard to choose which brother will finish above the other as last season they were so often next to each other on the track and in the end finished only nine points apart. Smith is being dropped by Tech 3 as he’s ‘too old now’ but Pol is contracted by Yamaha and not the team. He was being kept as their ‘next big thing’ but was outclassed by Smith throughout 2015 and only finished in front of the Brit on four occasions.

13th – Hector Barbera – Spanish – 29 years old – Avintia Racing Ducati 225 Races (103x MotoGP, 75x 250cc, 47x 125cc) 10 GP wins (4x 250cc, 6x 125cc) 9 Poles (8x 250cc, 1x 125cc) I’m quite a fan of Hector and he’s one of those riders that I wish he’d gotten a shot at a better bike sooner in his career. Since the Ducati looks pretty competitive this season he could score some good results and I’d like to see a few decent top ten finishes.

14th – Danilo Petrucci – Italian – 25 years old – Pramac Ducati 68 Races (68x MotoGP) He joined the MotoGP grid with Ioda in 2012 after racing in the FIM Superstock 1000 championship where he finished second and the Italian Superstock 1000 championship which he won. He was a surprise signing for Pramac last season but the likeable Italian was second at Silverstone for a maiden podium and finished between ninth and twelfth in pretty much every other race.

15th – Loris Baz – French – 23 years old – Avintia Racing Ducati 17 Races (17x MotoGP) The first rider on the list not to come from Spain, Italy or Great Britain which must say something about the politics of the World Championship surely. He joined Forward Yamaha last season after three years in the World Superbike Championship where he picked up two wins and was fifth overall in 2014 after a string of great podiums with Kawasaki. He really impressed me last season and he was so close to a podium at Misano (but thankfully didn’t get it since we had two Brits there!).

16th – Tito Rabat – Spanish – 26 years old – Estrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS Honda 1x Moto2 Champion (2014) 160 Races (84x Moto2, 76x 125cc) 13 GP wins (13x Moto2) 16 Poles (16x Moto2) Rabat is the only rookie on the grid this year and the 2014 Moto2 champ will be hoping for an improvement on last year when things just didn’t click in the defence of his title. I’m putting him above his team-mate but he needs to hit the ground running to stay there.

17th – Eugene Laverty – Irish – 29 years old – Aspar Ducati 48 Races (18x MotoGP, 29x 250cc, 1x 125cc) Although Laverty joined the MotoGP grid from four years in World Superbikes he did ride in the 250cc class back in 2007 and 2008. His highest finish then was 13th in China and Italy in 2008 and he then moved to World Supersport with Honda where he finished second twice. In 2009 he was beaten by Cal Crutchlow to the title and in 2010 it was Supersport legend Kenan Sofuoglu. In his Superbike years he had a good challenge for the title with Aprilia in 2013 but lost out to Tom Sykes. He had four points finishes in 2015 with the best being twelfth in Catalunya but will hope for better in 2016 with a more competitive Ducati.

18th – Jack Miller – Australian – 21 years old – Estrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS Honda 73 Races (18x MotoGP, 49x Moto3, 6x 125cc) 6 GP wins (6x Moto3) 8 Poles (8x Moto3) In 2015 Miller became the first rookie to jump straight to MotoGP from the Moto3 class which began in 2012 to provide a 250cc platform to develop riders with the aim of progressing through Moto2 to MotoGP. Miller skipped Moto2 entirely and after jump one season of competing at the front of the Moto3 field (when he finished second to Alex Marquez in 2014) he raced in the MotoGP class last season. He was in the points twelve times with a best of eleventh in Catalunya.

19th - Yonny Hernandez – Colombian – 27 years old – Aspar Ducati 100 Races (69x MotoGP, 31x Moto2) Yonny had two seasons in Moto2 in 2010 & 2011 when he had a few good races including sixth at Sachsenring and Valencia in 2011 for Avintia Blusens. His MotoGP debut came in 2012 with the same team in his four years in MotoGP he’s been in the points on a regular basis. He raced for the Pramac Ducati team last season but was replaced by Redding this year.

20th – Stefan Bradl – German – 26 years old – Gresini Aprilia 1x Moto2 Champion (2011) 156 Races (69x MotoGP, 33x Moto2, 54x 125cc) 7 GP wins (5x Moto2, 2x 125cc) 8 Poles (1x MotoGP, 7x Moto2) It’s hard to predict anything other than the Aprilia riders finishing in the bottom two (wildcard and replacement riders aside) and picking between the pair is difficult. It’s a shame as they are both talented riders that deserve to be on better bikes further up the grid. Bradl is a former Moto2 champion in three years on a Honda between 2012 and 2014 he was regularly in the top six.

21st – Alvaro Bautista – Spanish – 31 years old – Gresini Aprilia 1x 125cc Champion (2006) 220 Races (104x MotoGP, 49x 250cc, 67x 125cc) 16 GP wins (8x 250cc, 8x 125cc) 18 Poles (1x MotoGP, 9x 250cc, 8x 125cc) I don’t like having to Alvaro last because he is by no means the worst rider on the grid. After winning the 2006 125cc title he came close to the 250cc title in 2008 and lost out to the late Marco Simoncelli after the Italian won three of the last four races. He started in MotoGP with two years on a Suzuki before moving to Gresini Honda in 2012 to take the seat that Simoncelli would have had. He was fifth that season including a pole position at Silverstone and sixth in 2013. Last season on the Aprilia he was in the points in thirteen races but the Ducatis have improved and the Aprilia is struggling to match the so far it seems.

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